23 questions that will shape Indiana politics in 2023
Plus: New behind-the-scenes details on the Republican Indiana Senate primary.
#INSEN
THE LATEST: A crowded 2024 Senate primary is already brewing deep in the heart of Trump Country.
In a state with a deep and restless bench of ambitious GOP politicians, a half-dozen of them are weighing a shot at a coveted seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Mike Braun to run for governor. The roster of candidates spans the GOP’s ideological spectrum at a time when significant numbers of GOP voters here appear to be souring on the former president.
But the biggest factor hovering over the race at this moment isn’t Trump. It’s the possibility of a political comeback by Mitch Daniels — the outgoing Purdue University president whose eight years as governor shaped nearly two decades of Republican rule in the state.
THE DEETS:
“Jim Banks rightfully believes he is the person best positioned to win a Republican primary for Senate in Indiana,” a person close to Banks said. “He won’t make his decision based on what others do and I think the poll numbers released by Daniels and Spartz will only embolden him to run.”
Earlier this summer, Daniels had been urged by allies — including Indiana Speaker of the House Todd Huston — to seek a third term as governor. But Daniels recently said he is “disinclined” to do so. A person familiar with his thinking said that Daniels “seems more interested in protecting his legacy as gov[ernor] than building a new one…He wants to have his voice heard and he’s looking at it,” this person said of a potential Daniels Senate campaign. “His interest is federal.”
#INDYMAYOR
FIRST IN IMPORTANTVILLE: The Indiana Professional Chapter of the Society of Professional Journalists is calling on potential Republican Indianapolis mayoral candidate Abdul Hakim-Shabazz, the right-leaning Statehouse journalist and commentator who formed an exploratory committee after Christmas, to “forfeit access” to certain press-only Statehouse events:
“By becoming a partisan candidate, if he is abiding by the SPJ standards, Mr. Shabazz would forfeit access as an objective journalist to Statehouse news conferences, and access to legislative floor activities granted beyond that of what would be offered to an average citizen,” said Lisa Renze, chapter resident. “Mr. Shabazz could, of course, continue providing commentary as he chooses.”
It’s worth recalling the SPJ demanded an apology in 2021 when Attorney General Todd Rokita barred the commentator as a member of the credentialed press, and a legal battle ensued.
Hakim-Shabazz’s presence as a commentator on WIBC and other media outlets raises fascinating questions about equal-time laws.
Asked for comment, Hakim-Shabazz said “I plan to continue covering state matters. The jury is still out on city hall.” He agreed that equal-time laws could come to play “if I become a candidate. We’re having those discussions with my program director.”
#2023
At the beginning of each year, I like to open up my reporter’s notebook and share some questions that I think could drive the news cycle in the coming months. From the possibility of wild and rollicking open Republican primaries for governor, Senate, and the 3rd and 5th Congressional Districts to a Mike Pence presidential campaign headquarters in Indiana, here are some Hoosier politics queries the answers to which I’ll be tracking in 2023:
But first, check out last year’s list to see how many were answered:
Will former Vice President Mike Pence launch—for real this time, though—a presidential campaign in 2023?
Will former Gov. Mitch Daniels actually pull the trigger on a Senate bid? If so, does Rep. Jim Banks still run (early signs point to yes on the latter)?
If both Banks and Rep. Victoria Spartz run for Senate, leaving open seats in the 3rd and 5th Congressional Districts, respectively, how big are the fields to replace them?
Would Indiana Democrats run a candidate against Daniels if he is the nominee—or give him a pass, like they once did with then-Sen. Dick Lugar in the 2000s?
Is the Republican primary gubernatorial field set at three candidates: Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, retiring U.S. Sen. Mike Braun, and Fort Wayne businessman Eric Doden? Or do we see another candidate such as Indiana Secretary of Commerce Brad Chambers join the field?
Can Republicans avoid a costly and damaging series of primaries in 2024?
Can Indiana Democrats find viable 2024 candidates?
Will former Democratic Secretary of State candidate Destiny Wells run for governor, or attorney general? Something else?
Will former Republican Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick, who is eyeing a Democratic gubernatorial bid, be fully embraced by her party in a primary?
Is Ambassador to the Vatican Joe Donnelly’s last political job? Or does he come home to run for governor, setting up a rematch with Mike Braun?
Is the Trumpian hold on the Indiana Republican psyche beginning to break, as this survey suggests?
Will Indiana Republican Chairman Kyle Hupfer’s bid to become the co-chair of the Republican National Committee yield results—and more national influence—for Indiana?
What private sector job is current Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb most likely to be in line for?
When—will?—Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Mike Schmuhl's investment in national fundraising and statewide infrastructure start to pay off, and do we see signs of that in 2023 mayoral races?
Will Indiana Democrats make inroads—or even flip—mayoralties in suburban cities that are trending blue? (In places like Carmel, for instance?)
Will Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett end the year with more money than any other prospective candidate, and then face pressure from the Democratic Governors Association and others within the party to reconsider a statewide bid in 2024?
What’s Trey Hollingsworth up to? Is he, as Braun suggests, a potential lieutenant governor candidate in a Braun administration? Or does he want to run for Senate?
Will rumors about a Suzanne Crouch and Greg Pence gubernatorial ticket come to pass?
Will all of Sen. Todd Young’s work on the CHIPS Act result in Indiana landing a Regional Innovation Engine hub here in Indiana, boosting the state’s economy?
Do social issues such as access to contraceptives and so-called “don’t say gay” legislation hijack the Indiana General Assembly’s budget session?
How will Indiana and Indianapolis news startups and nonprofits such as Axios Local, the Indiana Capital Chronicle, and State Affairs change the media ecosystem?
How does the ongoing and messy national breakup between the Republican party and big business play out in Indianapolis?
How many times does Indiana blow-up the national news cycle?
Now, it’s your turn: What questions do you have about Indiana’s political scene in the coming months? Leave a message in the comments. I’ll publish the best ones.
How long before Diego Morales implodes?
Will the Indiana Democrats attempt to make up ground in rural districts in 2024, starting in 2023?