Importantville: Braunmentun?—New Braun internal polling—Don Jr. in town—new #INSen poll this week
What's new—and what's next—at the intersection of Indiana politics and business?
By Adam Wren and design by Kris Davidson
Days to Election Day: 15
Days to next #INSen Debate: 8
THE NEW NARRATIVE: Indiana Republicans are increasingly bullish about Mike Braun’s opportunity to unseat Sen. Joe Donnelly in Indiana’s barnburner of a Senate race.
In a strategy memo, Braun’s Jon Kohan and Josh Kelley write that “Braun has been riding a three-week straight polling surge, behind an aggressive paid media campaign, a record setting fundraising quarter, and a dominant ground campaign.”
They write:
Our most recent brushfire conducted Oct.14-17 of 800 likely voters (49% cell/51% landline) had Braun leading Donnelly 44%-40%, Brenton 7%, undecided 5%, balance refused to state.
And here’s Politico’s James Arkin, with an Indianapolis dateline, on Braun’s analysis of the race:
Republican challenger Mike Braun told a group of close friends and supporters in his hometown of Jasper last week he’d seen recent polling that put him ahead outside the margin of error, and in an interview, Braun said Kavanaugh’s confirmation was behind the boost. But he also said the race is closer than it should be for a state Trump won by double digits.
And here’s Indiana GOPer John Hammond in a New York Times dispatch from Anderson:
“There’s a momentum shift to Mike Braun here,” said John Hammond, a member of the Republican National Committee from Indiana.
Here are three numbers that will shape the race down the homestretch:
$9 million: The amount Republicans have bought through Nov. 6, according to Advertising Analytics, via Politico.
$7 million: The amount Democrats have booked through Nov. 6.
92,000: Number of Facebook interactions on Braun’s Facebook page over the 30-day that ended this past Saturday, per The New York Times.
55,000: Number of Facebook interactions on Donnelly’s Facebook page over the same time. As the Times writes: “Republicans in close races appear to have benefited slightly more from a ‘Kavanaugh bump’ than Democrats:
In Indiana’s Senate race, Mike Braun, the Republican running against the incumbent Democrat, Joe Donnelly, was trailing Mr. Donnelly in Facebook interactions for the two weeks leading up to Sept. 27, the day that Dr. Blasey testified in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee.
For nearly three weeks following the testimony, Mr. Braun led Mr. Donnelly on Facebook by a significant margin.
WHAT’S NEXT: A new poll of the race is expected from friend of the newsletter Abdul-Hakim Shabazz, of Indy Politics, in the middle of this week. It will be interesting to see if the momentum Republicans are talking about privately translates into a swing in public polling, which is still in Donnelly’s favor, though within the margin of error. Abdul emails:
We used a reputable pollster and will have a solid size sample size of likely voters, so we will feel good about the results when we release them. As far as cost, let's just say this the first thing I ever spent five figures on that wasn't something I could drive, live in, or get a degree out of.
Good morning and welcome to Importantville. Donald Trump, Jr., will campaign for Braun tonight. Per the release, “Gov. Eric Holcomb, Sixth District Congressional Nominee Greg Pence and statewide Republican candidates. Kimberly Guilfoyle, who serves as the vice chairwoman of American First Action Super PAC, will also be in attendance.” Trump, Jr., is expected to speak at 4 p.m.
WHERE’S VEEP? Pence dines with Trump at 12:15 p.m. He participates in a Great America political event in D.C. at 5:30 p.m.
IMPORTANTVILLE READS
Michael Tackett, The New York Times: Joe Donnelly Runs to the Middle and Tries to Not Get Run Over
Senator Joe Donnelly is standing in the most dangerous place in American politics: the middle of the road.
Mr. Donnelly, a Democrat from Indiana, is staking his re-election on a contrarian proposition that in a highly polarized era, there are still enough voters who believe in moderation to give him a second term. It worked six years ago when Mr. Donnelly, then a member of the House, won his Senate seat by portraying his Tea Party opponent as an unhinged man with road rage.
But 2012 feels like a distant era, and Mr. Donnelly’s Republican opponent, Mike Braun, is firmly aligned with President Trump and is hurling insults in fine Trumpian fashion. On Friday, the Braun campaign was calling the senator “Mexico Joe” — he apparently was using a Mexican-made ax in a recent ad — and accusing him of currying favor with “socialist Bernie” Sanders, the Vermont independent.
Kaitlin Lange, Indy Star: Indiana Election 2018: Is Watson too liberal for the 9th district?
Liz Watson, the Democrat running for Congress in Indiana's 9th District, is facing an uphill battle against Republican Rep. Trey Hollingsworth in a red district that voted for President Donald Trump by nearly 27 points in 2016.
Watson has all but avoided saying anything negative about Trump — or even his controversial Supreme Court pick — during her campaign, and has advertised herself as a fifth generation Hoosier who wants a fair economy for hard working men and women.
But she has criticized the Republican tax reform for cutting taxes for the rich, calls climate change the “greatest threat facing humanity,” advocates for the legalization of medical marijuana at a federal level and supports universal healthcare coverage.
She’s also played up her opponent’s geographical history: Hollingsworth wasn’t born in Indiana and only just moved to the district prior to the 2016 campaign.
That’s all for today. Thanks for reading. Was this email forwarded to you? You can subscribe below.