Importantville: #INSen Debate edition
What's new—and what's next—at the intersection of Indiana business and politics?
By Adam Wren and design by Kris Davidson
Days to Election Day: 29
It’s been a long, strange trip, but here we are: All three candidates—Democrat Joe Donnelly, Republican Mike Braun and Libertarian Lucy Brenton—will debate in Westville tonight at 6 p.m. The moderator is Anne Ryder, who teaches at the Indiana University Media School.
What’s at stake: Undecided or low-information voters who are just now tuning into the race. Really? Those kind of people are still left? Yes. Of registered voters, according to the latest Fox poll of the race, seven percent of men and 10 percent of women say they don't know how they’ll vote. Of working class whites with no degree, 10 percent don’t know how they’ll vote.
When it comes to likely voters, 28 percent of men said they may change their mind; 25 percent of women said they may change their mind; 37 percent of likely voters under 45 said they may change their mind; and 21 percent of voters 45 and older may change their mind.
Don’t sleep on Brenton, who is polling between 6 and 8 points according to the latest three polls of the race.
SPOILER ALERT: Both candidates will declare victory after the debate over.
THE CURTAIN RAISER: “Indiana Senate race 2018: Six things to watch for in tonight's debate,” by Chris Sikich.
How quickly will Braun bring up Donnelly's vote on Kavanaugh?...How big a role will Trump play?...Will this be as nasty as the GOP primary debates?...Can Braun go deep on the issues?...Will Braun attack Donnelly's success rate?...What role will Brenton play?
EXTRA, EXTRA: I’ve shared it here before, but it would be worth your time before tonight to review Ron Klain’s new rules of debating in the Trump era.
KLAIN'S ADVICE: “If you face a wannabe-Trump, don’t get rattled: You can turn his strength into a weakness. Klain told [Mike Allen] the way to do that is: ‘Be prepared to combat canned lines, keep a calm demeanor, and listen for the openings — when they’re swinging wildly, that leaves their body open for counterpunches.’
Good morning, and welcome to Importantville. You can watch the debate on C-Span, local affiliates, and YouTube. I’ll be doing post-debate coverage tonight on CBS 4 Indy and Fox 59.
WHERE’S VEEP? Pence will be in Dallas for a Pete Sessions for Congress event. Then, he’ll participate in a rally with Ted Cruz for Senate. Next, he’ll do a Josh Hawley for Senate event in Springfield, Mo.
HAPPENING THIS WEEK: Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh will be sworn in as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States tonight at 7 p.m. in the East Room of the White House. Early voting begins Wednesday. MSNBC’s Katy Tur will broadcast from Purdue University Wednesday. South Bend Mayor and potential presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg’s PAC will roll out a round of federal candidate endorsements. On Friday, Pence will come to Indianapolis to join Mike Braun for Indiana GOP’s Fall Dinner. And former Vice President Joe Biden will rally with Donnelly in Hammond.
#INSEN Debate Bingo Card
Mark a spot on the card—or take a drink, if you’re so inclined—each time one of the candidates mentions the phrase or word in the box.
Importantville Reads
Natalia E. Contreras, Indy Star: “A year after Pence walked out of Colts game, report reveals costs to taxpayers”
According to documents released by the Huffington Post from the Department of Homeland Security, the estimated cost of the visit is about $325,000.
The numbers include hotel, travel and additional security measures. Secret Service expenses totaled $75,000, the Huffington Post reported.
Hotel rooms costs totaled $64,637.88 at nine different locations. The most expensive bill totaled $25,151 at the Marriott in downtown Indianapolis.
CNN reported the Air Force 2 flight cost about $30,000 per hour and estimated the total cost of the trip around $242,000.
Alice Miranda Ollstein, Politico: “'It was not real insurance': Indiana Senate candidate Mike Braun touts his company health plan as national model, but some of his workers disagree”
Republican businessman Mike Braun says he wants all Americans to have health insurance just like his own workers — a pillar of his campaign to unseat Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in Indiana’s exceedingly tight Senate race.
Braun boasts that his prowess at cutting deals with health insurers at his auto parts and shipping company means he could “walk into that Senate and probably know more about what to do than anybody that’s there.”
But while he may have kept premiums stable for a decade for his roughly 900 workers, deductibles are sky-high — meaning big out-of-pocket costs for anyone who gets sick. Employees of his company, Meyer Distributing, must spend $5,000 a year on health care before their bills are covered, and families pay double that, or $10,000 a year, according to a copy of the plan obtained by POLITICO.
Lachlan Markay, The Daily Beast: “Sweetheart Loans and Creative Accounting Behind Debt-Fueled GOP Senate Campaign”
Indiana Republican Mike Braun is running his U.S. Senate campaign on borrowed funds. More than three of every four dollars in his war chest was loaned to the campaign, and the bulk of it has come from banks with executives who are Braun’s friends, professional acquaintances, or campaign donors.
At the same time, Braun has used a legal but controversial accounting maneuver to circumvent donation limits by re-routing nearly $100,000 in money earmarked for a prior election through funds that he himself has lent to the campaign, and into his general-election account.
Braun is challenging Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in a key Republican pickup opportunity, and has reported less than $2 million in direct contributions for the effort, which is dwarfed by the $6.4 million in loans he’s used to bankroll the campaign.
A significant chunk of that money has come from Braun himself; he’s loaned his campaign about $1.8 million. But most of it has come by way of loans from three banks, all of which are charging him relatively low interest rates.
The outsized role that borrowed money is playing in his campaign underscores the degree to which personal wealth can boost a candidate’s political prospects—and provide opportunities for campaign financing that are unavailable to less-affluent candidates.
Importantville Inbox
From Braun’s spox Josh Kelley:
Tonight, Republican nominee and Indiana job creator Mike Braun will participate in the first debate for U.S. Senate against Democrat Senator Joe Donnelly.
...
Tonight, Hoosiers will see a clear contrast between Senator Donnelly - his liberal record, outsourcing jobs to Mexico - and Mike Braun’s vision for Indiana: working with President Trump to create jobs, economic certainty, and creating a brighter future for Indiana.
From Joe for Indiana:
Donnelly for Indiana will host a live fact check of tonight’s first Indiana Senate debate between Joe and Rep. Mike Braun, highlighting Joe’s record as an effective senator for Hoosiers and setting the record straight when Rep. Braun continues his habit of lying to voters.
The site will feature to-the-minute fact checks and updates from Donnelly for Indiana through the debate, sparing members of the media from receiving dozens of fact-checking emails throughout the debate.
The LINK.
That’s all for today. Buckle up—it will be another crazy week in Importantville. Did you receive this note from a friend or colleague? Subscribe below.