Importantville: #INSen state of play—Hill's new defense—Pence visits Brown County
By @AdamWren & design by Kris Davidson
Days to Election Day: 113
BREAKING THIS MORNING: High Alpha, Scott Dorsey’s Indianapolis venture capital studio, launches High Alpha II, with over $100 million in funding. Per the press release:
High Alpha, a leading venture studio, announced today it has raised over $100 million to fuel the next generation of enterprise software, making it one of the largest venture studios in the world.
Q2 U.S. SENATE FUNDRAISING NUMBERS: The contours of Indiana’s U.S. Senate race took greater shape in recent days, as candidates Mike Braun and Sen. Joe Donnelly posted their second-quarter fundraising results.
Braun raised $2.5 million, eclipsing Donnelly’s $1.9 million, a personal best for the incumbent. Braun raised $1.5 million after the primary.
But Donnelly has $6.4 million in his war chest—$5.5 million more cash on hand than Braun. To be certain, outside money will likely eclipse the actual amounts both candidates bring in by November.
Good morning, and welcome to Importantville. Thanks subscribing to the free version of the newsletter. You can subscribe to the paid version here for as little as $10 a month to get access to breaking scoops and analysis when I have them, as well as a bonus weekly issue with more content than you’ll find here.
IMPORTANTVILLE MERCH: Some of you have asked me about getting the Importantville logo on a t-shirt. Thanks to a partnership with Heather Neal, an Importantville subscriber, you can now get those here, courtesy of Heather Tees.
DONNELLY ON THIS MORNING'S TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING:
The indictment against 12 Russian intelligence officials for interfering with the 2016 election is just the latest evidence of Russia’s deliberate efforts to disrupt our democracy. I hope President Trump will cancel his meeting with President Putin and in doing so, make clear that efforts to undermine our elections, attack critical U.S. infrastructure, and act as a destabilizing force abroad will not be tolerated.
INTERESTING JIM BANKS TWEET:
This warning from Director Coats today highlights why it is vital for President Trump to confront Putin next week about Russia's attempts to undermine American democracy. Congress has given the administration the tools it needs.https://t.co/tNYmGPtNTO
July 13, 2018WHERE’S VEEP? Back in D.C. for meetings at Commerce, after an off-schedule weekend visit to Indiana, where he attended a family friend’s wedding, dined at Tre Bicchieri in Columbus, stayed in Brown County, and angered Brian Howey of Howey Politics.
VP Pence is at Brown County SP @ Aynes House tonight & half the park is restricted from the general public. RESTRICTED! There's a heavy truck blocking the road beyond this barrier by the horse barn. This is an outrage. This is a park for the HOOSIER PEOPLE, Mike, not just YOU!!! pic.twitter.com/JLIHvbC2Xi
July 15, 2018#INSen state of play
Outside of fundraising totals, the axis of the Most Important Senate Race In the History of The Republic ™ seems to be slowly shifting away from a referendum on Donnelly’s tax reform vote. SCOTUS matters now, too.
But if you listen closely, you can hear Donnelly framing the race around healthcare—he talks a lot on the trail about people with pre-existing conditions losing coverage.
His SCOTUS vote on Brett Kavanaugh fits into this calculus. Consider a scenario where Donnelly votes against Kavanaugh, enthralling his base, and also wins a coalition of Trump voters, including farmers and manufacturers. Add to that coalition, perhaps, suburban donut-county denizens who find Braun’s positions such as arming teachers or supporting a traditional definition of marriage as too conservative.
The race is also now about Trump’s tariffs, which could ostensibly wipe out the benefits of tax cuts for Indiana’s corn and soybean farmers, not to mention manufacturers and a litany of adjacent of industries.
Here’s what Christine Matthews—president of the polling firm Bellwether Research & Consulting, and Mitch Daniels' former pollster—told me Friday about her analysis of the race:
Donnelly, when I’ve looked at his numbers, his approvals are roughly the same among Democrats and Republicans, which is exactly the position he needs to be in to win in a Republican state. Dick Lugar and Evan Bayh used to be that way; Donnelly is the same kind of figure. That's exactly the kind of setup he needs in a Republican state.
And here’s Indiana Democrat Kip Tew, who helped turn Indiana blue for Obama in 2008, in The New Yorker yesterday:
In Indiana, where Donnelly, a conservative Democrat in an even more conservative state, is very much in the undecided camp on Kavanaugh, Kip Tew, the former state Democratic Party chairman who is now a lobbyist, told me that, contrary to what most people think, “I think he’s got an easy vote to make.” He argued that conservatives were already against Donnelly, so he’d never win their votes anyway, and the centrist votes he needs won’t be affected by the Supreme Court fight. “The middle doesn’t care about this vote—they care about their paychecks and jobs,” he told me. “Most people can’t even name all nine Justices!”
IMPORTANTVILLE TAKE: National pundits discount the strength of Donnelly’s campaign here at their peril. Yes, Trump won the state by 19 points. But how much of that was made up of anti-Clinton voters, not anti-Donnelly voters? Donnelly always says: Before they were Trump voters, they were my voters. It’s far too early to crown Braun as the frontrunner.
NWI TIMES SCOOP—HILL LAWYERS UP:
Per Dan Carden:
Attorney General Curtis Hill Jr. is attempting to scuttle the investigation into his alleged sexual misconduct by requesting the removal of a special prosecutor and questioning the authority of Indiana's inspector general to build a case against him.
In court documents obtained exclusively by The Times, lawyers for the Republican attorney general contend there was no legitimate basis Tuesday for Marion Superior Judge Lisa Borges to appoint a special prosecutor, as there have been no criminal allegations involving Hill filed with law enforcement authorities.
BOFFO AP INVESTIGATION ON PENCE'S KIEL BROS. OIL CO. FALLOUT:
This story was sitting under every Indiana reporter’s nose, and yet while it was whispered about for years, the AP got results after a months-long investigation.
Per Brian Slodysko:
The collapse of Kiel Bros. Oil Co. in 2004 was widely publicized. Less known is that the state of Indiana — and, to a smaller extent, Kentucky and Illinois — are still on the hook for millions of dollars to clean up more than 85 contaminated sites across the three states, including underground tanks that leaked toxic chemicals into soil, streams and wells.
BUTTIGIEG GEARS UP FOR 2020: Politico looks at the role mayors will play in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, and South Bend’s mayor scored some ink.
From Politico:
“It’s a challenge,” Buttigieg said. “I think mayor is the best job in politics. The only sense in which the other jobs are enviable is it’s easier to do extra activities, right? So, it’s not like there’s a legislative session and when we’re out of session I can just spend all my time going to conferences and stuff. You’ve got to be home doing the job. … We have potholes and animal control and infrastructure and stuff to do at home.”
That earned the attention of Mike Joyce, an RNC spox here in Indiana, who blasted Buttigieg with a Trumpian nickame: Part-Time Peter.
If Part-Time Pete Buttigieg spent more time focusing on his current job as opposed to running his mouth about Presidential aspirations, then perhaps he’d actually have some accomplishments to hang his hat on. If this is all the Democrats can muster up to run against President Trump in 2020, then it’s going to be a long 8 years for the party of obstruction and resistance.
A 2020 campaign to cover already? Hard pass.
That’s all for today. Have a good Monday. And send tips to cadamwren@gmail.com.