Importantville: The Final Countdown—New CBS poll has Braun up—#INSen Debate bingo round 2—Trump in Indy—Showtime's 'The Circus' filming in Indy?
What's happening—and what's next—at the intersection of politics and business in Indiana?
By Adam Wren and design by Kris Davidson
Days to Election Day: 8
Days to next #INSen Debate: 1
NEW YESTERDAY FROM AXIOS: President Donald Trump could make another stop this Friday in Indiana—this time in Fort Wayne, according to Axios. It’s a somewhat surprising campaign destination, as an internal poll from Rep. Jim Banks’ district has Mike Braun leading Sen. Joe Donnelly 52 percent to 37 percent. It’s possible Braun is looking to run up the score there.
THE NEW #INSEN REAL CLEAR POLITICS AVERAGE: +0.5 Braun.
Braun appears to have cemented his lead over Sen. Joe Donnelly in the final days of the race. The Indiana Republican Party newsletter called last week “The week that swung it.” A new CBS News 2018 Battleground Tracker poll of 975 Likely Voters in the field from Oct. 23-26 has Braun at 46 percent to Donnelly’s 43 percent, with Libertarian Lucy Brenton at 3 percent. Eight percent aren't sure of their vote.
What’s fascinating: It looks like a larger portion of voters could presumably break toward Donnelly. Twenty-three percent of respondents say they would consider or are undecided about voting for Donnelly this year; 20 percent say the same about Braun.
“It’s over,” one GOP insider texted me yesterday. “Honestly, Braun would need a screw up. But it’s a crazy year. I think there’s a small possibility that we are all wrong about everything and the polling is off again. I’d say there’s a 20 percent chance the [blue] wave is bigger than anyone thinks and in that scenario Donnelly would survive.”
Here’s Donnelly’s response to Dan Spehler on IN Focus, when asked about Braun's lead in the polls: “The last three public polls have all had me ahead. And my job is to make sure I do what's right for Indiana and our country.”
Here’s the mood from inside Donnelly’s camp, according to campaign manager Peter Hanscom: “The early voting numbers look great. Our ground game is going to win Joe this race. And whatever momentum Braun thought he had two weeks ago, he might want to take a peek and see if that wind is still in his sails.”
Two numbers that matter down the home stretch:
$1.44 million: Amount Donnelly raised in the first 17 days of October.
$1.2 million: Amount Braun raised over the same period.
Good Monday morning and welcome to Importantville. It’s the final countdown. The final debate is Tuesday at 7 p.m. at Newfields. I’ll be at Indy Chamber’s HobNob before the event. Stop by and say “hi.”
WHERE'S VEEP? He’s in Oakland, Mich., for a campaign event for Mike Bishop and Lena Epstein. Next, he'll head to Grand Rapids for a pair of John James for Senate events.
#INSEN Bingo, Round 2
See if you can tell which squares have changed—and which haven’t. How to play: Mark a spot on the card—or take a drink, if you’re so inclined—each time one of the candidates mentions the phrase or word in the box. Winner is the first person to tweet me a photo of their completed card on Twitter. The prize: a free year of Importantville.
EXTRA, EXTRA: Is Showtime’s The Circus coming to Indiana tomorrow? That’s what the Indiana Debate Commission seemed to hint at on Twitter last week:
BRAUN’S CLOSING ARGUMENT: ‘DESERVE BETTER’
The key line: “I spent my career in the real world: creating jobs and getting things done.”
The key item of clothing, standard fare for a closing political ad: The Barn Jacket!
DONNELLY SCORES NEWSPAPER ENDORSEMENTS: The South Bend Tribune and The Fort Wayne Journal Gazette both endorsed Donnelly. Both candidates have also met with The Indianapolis Star, I’m told.
From Journal Gazette: Donnelly the senator Indiana, nation need
In an absolutely riveting midterm election, few races are being watched more closely than the contest between U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly and his challenger, Mike Braun. The race could help determine control of the Senate for the rest of President Donald Trump's term, and among the issues that could hang in the balance is the future of your health care.
These are sharply different candidates. Both Braun and Donnelly have stressed their willingness to work with Trump, but don't be confused. Donnelly is a Democrat who's proven willing to defy his own party if he thinks it's in the best interest of Hoosiers to do so. Braun is a Republican who appears willing to follow whatever policy Trump points him toward.
That, unfortunately, could include crucial choices on health care, an issue that rightly appears to be at the top of Indiana voters' concerns.
Braun believes he could help Congress fashion market-driven solutions to the high costs of medical treatments and drugs and protect pre-existing conditions by using his experience crafting a self-insurance plan for his southern Indiana company.
From The South Bend Tribune: Our Opinion: Joe Donnelly is the choice for U.S. Senate
Politicians love to talk about “bipartisanship.”
They know voters can get weary of endless fights and standoffs that cause gridlock. They vow to “work across the aisle” and “get things done.”
Joe Donnelly doesn’t just talk the talk. He backs it up. The Democrat running for re-election to the U.S. Senate is still the type of politician this country needs in Washington.
Donnelly’s opponent, Mike Braun, and other Republicans have tried to cast Donnelly as a hyper-partisan liberal. It’s just not true. Their attacks, for example, conveniently neglect the fact that Donnelly voted for President Trump’s first pick to the Supreme Court, Neil Gorsuch.
He has also been attacked for voting against last year’s federal tax cuts, but he points out that he pushed for changes that wouldn’t worsen the deficit and would be less generous to corporations and more generous to middle-class taxpayers. The tax bill that passed, he says, “isn’t the one I talked to President Trump about.”
The reality is that Donnelly has repeatedly been cited and lauded as one of the most bipartisan legislators in Washington. He has not demonized President Trump and says he’ll vote for Trump initiatives that he agrees with.
Two Cool Election Day Business Things
—Lime, the scooter company, will offer users two free rides on Election Day. Per the press release:
With the code LIME2VOTE18 which will be live on Nov. 6, riders will have access to any of Lime’s full fleet of shared bikes, e-bikes, and e-scooters for a free ride to and from their polling location, up to 30-minutes. Lime is currently available in more than 100 cities across the country and is the first micro-mobility company to offer an Election Day transportation solution for voters.
—Lessonly, the Indianapolis-based, employee training software company, is giving employees time off to vote, per CEO Max Yoder:
Many months ago, after my wife suggested it, we decided to give Lessonly employees the afternoon off on Election Day, November 6th. Here’s why:
Turnout for American midterm elections is painfully low. In 2014, only 37% of eligible national voters showed up to vote. In Indiana, that number was even lower at 28%.
We’re all busy. The demands of work and life often make it difficult for employees, especially those with children, to vote before or after work. With more time, the higher the likelihood is that everyone gets to the polls.
I know our approach might not be feasible for every business, but if you manage people and can afford to offer any sort of added flexibility on Election Day, I hope you do it.
IMPORTANTVILLE INBOX
“Indiana Democrats Send Mailer Telling Hoosiers to Vote for U.S. Senate Candidate Who's Not Democrat Joe Donnelly,” writes the Indiana GOP.
The Indiana Democrat Party this weekend circulated a mailing to Hoosiers encouraging them to vote for a U.S. Senate candidate, but that candidate wasn't their own Democrat Joe Donnelly.
In a desperate, late-game campaign tactic, Indiana Democrats distributed a large mail piece, which attempts to convince Hoosiers who are likely to vote for Mike Braun to instead vote for a third-party candidate. This, in turn, would reduce the number of votes Democrat Joe Donnelly would need to win.
“This Democrat dirty trick is a desperation move, and shows that the momentum in this race is squarely in Mike Braun's corner,” said Hupfer. “From last week's internal Braun polling memo to two more polls released in the last week, Hoosiers are making it clear that it's time for Democrat Joe Donnelly to go.”
IMPORTANTVILLE READS
MOOD MUSIC FROM THE STAR, by Chris Sikich and Kaitlin Lange: Why final push by Braun, Donnelly could determine party control of U.S. Senate
As the song goes, you ain't seen nothing yet.
Sen. Joe Donnelly and Republican Mike Braun already have blitzed Indiana with campaign stops, political advertising and big-name rallies. But in the final push toward Election Day, the airwaves are about to get even more crowded with campaign commercials touting and bashing the two candidates.
With party control of the U.S. Senate at stake, the money will continue to flow and the national spotlight will continue to shine on Indiana's pivotal race. The candidates and outside groups have committed $36.4 million on advertisements for Sept. 30 to Nov. 6, among the highest in the nation's Senate races, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from Kantar Media/CMAG.
Republican insiders believe President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence will return to Indiana in the coming days to stump for Braun. The administration needs the state to deliver another win and Republican insiders say Pence would be loathe to let Indiana's Senate seat stay blue.
Brian Francisco, Journal Gazette: Tone civil, differences severe in 1st debate
U.S. Rep. Jim Banks and election challenger Courtney Tritch disagreed Sunday about health care, immigration, abortion and gun laws during their first debate.
After Banks, R-3rd, said he had supported the ongoing federal investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election “from the beginning,” Democrat Tritch told the TV audience, “Hold on to your hats, we agree that the (Robert) Mueller investigation needs to go forward.”
Otherwise, Tritch and Banks mostly begged to differ – in measured, civil responses to moderators' questions – during their hourlong match in the studios of Fort Wayne TV station WPTA.
“I respect Courtney,” Banks said. “I know that she has deeply held sincere beliefs, and I do as well. They happen to be very different views.”
Tritch said she favors revamping the Affordable Care Act so that it would allow “anyone of any age to buy into Medicare.” She said, “The best part is that it would be self-funded, so there would not be an additional cost to the government as a result of this.”
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