Importantville: What's next for Hogsett?—Pence's midterm GOTV message—New #INSen narrative—Delph and Merritt on the ropes
What's happening—and what's next—at the intersection of politics and business in Indiana.
By Adam Wren and design by Kris Davidson
Days to Election Day: 43
Days to First #INSen Debate: 13
THE NEW #INSEN NARRATIVE: In their latest ranking of the 10 most competitive Senate races, The Washington Post downgrades Indiana’s race between Sen. Joe Donnelly and Mike Braun from No. 2 to No. 4. Writes Amber Phillips:
Making Sen. Joe Donnelly’s (D) reelection less competitive may be the biggest change on our list. Once seen as the most vulnerable red-state senator, Donnelly is holding on against a businessman who beat out two congressmen for the Republican nomination, Mike Braun. But Braun may be too much of a novice for such a competitive race.
WHAT’S NEXT: Will Trump, who loves a winner and is quick to cut loose an underperforming candidate, come back to Indiana, or will we continue to see Vice President Mike Pence as Braun’s top surrogate? Look for more stories about Republicans grousing over the way Braun is managing his campaign, as well as for stories urging Braun to use more of his personal wealth come October.
EXTRA, EXTRA: New DSCC Braun Microsite—“Is Mike Braun Lying? Yes.”
Launching Makesitupmike.com, the DSCC charges: Rep. Mike Braun is trying to fool Hoosiers into thinking he supports protecting health care coverage for people with pre-existing conditions, but he’s lying.
Good Monday morning. Welcome to Importantville.
WHERE’S VEEP? Pence heads to New York City, where he'll participate in a series of bilateral meetings with the President of the Republic of Korea, the President of the French Republic, and the President of the Arab Republic of Egypt, and join the president for the signing of the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement.
BREAKING OVER THE WEEKEND: Pence will appear with Mike Braun at the Indiana Republican Party Fall Dinner on Oct. 12.
EXTRA, EXTRA: NBC News’ Vaughn Hillyard went to Columbus last week to document the effects of tariffs on Pence’s hometown.
New complaints are surfacing that the Trump administration’s trade war is harming businesses, this time coming from Mike Pence’s hometown – Columbus, Indiana. Stephanie Ruhle speaks with Vaughn Hillyard who is on the ground in Columbus seeing the effect firsthand.
HOGSETT AS HAMLET? “Joe Hogsett wants you to forget he’s a Democrat,” by James Briggs, in The Indianapolis Star:
The 61-year-old Democrat is entering the final stretch of his third year as Indianapolis mayor. The city next year will hold elections for mayor and all 25 City-County Council seats. There has been speculation that Hogsett might walk away because he is unhappy with the job, or because he’s sizing up another opportunity, such as taking on Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb in 2020. There is little evidence to support those rumors — and there are plenty of reasons to think Hogsett will be campaigning for re-election a year from now.
Hogsett has accumulated enough political capital and campaign cash — more than $2.2 million on hand as of January — to give him an advantage over his most likely opponents. He has made progress on some promises, such as leading Indianapolis to fiscal stability, proposing a plan to fix the root causes of a pothole crisis and nearing the finish line on a new criminal justice campus.
But he also has failed to reverse a trend of perpetually rising murders. There were 155 criminal homicides in 2017, a third consecutive record-setting year. The city is on pace for an even bloodier 2018. The law-and-order candidate of 2015 has not finished the job.
TIMING OF HIS NEXT MOVE: “He’s not ready to make an announcement about his future. Hogsett promises to reveal his plans ‘a couple months down the road.’”
SHORTER BRIGGS: He’s running.
INTERESTING #INLEGIS NUGGET FROM HOWEY: “Horse Race: Sens. Delph, Merritt, Ford on upset watch,” by Brian A. Howey
With less than 50 days before the general election, we find three Republicans – Mike Delph, Jim Merritt and Jon Ford – truly vulnerable. Factor in the so-called “suburban female vote” that characterizes Delph’s Marion/Hamilton County district and the Merritt district in Indianapolis and the twin SDs 45 and 46 in the Jeffersonville/Clark County area within the Louisville suburbs where Sens. Ron Grooms and Jim Smith both won tight races in 2014, there doesn’t appear to be enough races in play for Democrats to make meaningful gains.
....
Sources tell HPI that President Trump is also extremely unpopular in Merritt’s district. And that could be a factor in the Louisville suburb races in SD 45-46, though Republican sources seem less animated about losing those seats than the two Indianapolis/Carmel seats.
IMPORTANTVILLE READS
Maureen Groppe, Indy Star: “Mike Pence warns Christian conservatives against complacency in midterm elections”
Two years after Mike Pence helped convince evangelical Christians to back Donald Trump's presidential bid, the vice president warned faith voters that complacency is the greatest threat to Republicans keeping control of Congress.
“The other side is mobilized, and some say they’re motivated as never before,” Pence said Saturday at the Family Research Council's Voter Values Summit. "But I say we must match – in fact, I say we must surpass – the energy of the American left and their enthusiasm and passion.”
He called the midterm elections a “choice between a party that celebrates America and one that often demeans millions of our neighbors and friends.”
“Let’s keep faith that He who has ever watched over this nation still governs in the affairs of men,” Pence said.
IMPORTANTVILLE INBOX
From Indiana Dems:
The bubbling of GOP discontent about Rep. Braun’s campaign erupted this week, as the AP reported that his lackadaisical schedule and fundraising struggles have driven the GOP into panic mode. After quitting the Statehouse to campaign full-time, Rep. Braun has only held 80 stops since the primary -- less than half of the number of public events that Joe has held despite his day job in D.C. Joe has outspent him by nearly double on the airwaves since the primary as well. It’s becoming clear to Republicans that Rep. Braun is not the candidate they’d hoped; instead, he’s the deeply flawed candidate everyone else has known him to be.
From Indiana GOP:
Governor Holcomb is meeting with the Italian companies that help power Indiana’s economy with their operations here...and this week, he personally welcomed the 31st Italian company to Indiana. He broke news this week that Milan-based (the other Milan, pronounced a little differently) Filtrec, a manufacturer of filters and filter elements, will locate its first U.S. operation in Indiana! The company is bringing a $1.3 million investment to the state...along with 25 new high-wage jobs.
GOP FALL DINNER SCHEDULE:
Sept. 22: Hancock County Fall BBQ
Sept. 22: Delaware County Lincoln Day Dinner
Sept. 25: Jennings County Lincoln Day Dinner
Sept. 29: Vermilion County Lincoln Day Dinner
Oct. 1: Orange County Fall Dinner
Oct. 3: Kosciusko County Republican Semi-Annual Fish Fry
Oct. 6: Clay County BBQ & Pie Auction
Oct. 11: Crawford County Republican Underground Lincoln Day Dinner
Oct. 13: Laconia Festival Booth & Parade
Oct. 13: Wabash County Republican Fall Dinner
Oct. 18: Annual Kosciusko County Republican Hall of Fame Dinner
Oct. 27: Halloween Parade in Corydon
IMPORTANTVILLE ABOUT TOWN
This weekend, I joined Abdul-Hakim Shabazz’s Indiana Issues to talk about the latest in Hoosier politics. Watch here.
On Sunday, I joined Dan Spehler and panel for IN Focus.You can find my winners and losers for last week here.
And here’s the IN Focus Podcast.
QUESTION: Would you listen to an Importantville podcast? Let me know.
IMPORTANTVILLE TRIVIA
QUESTION: Who was the first Hoosier on the Supreme Court of the United States? (H/T Eric Berman).
Be the first to respond in the comments section to win.
That’s all for today. Thanks for reading. What did I miss? What did I get wrong? Send me tips and feedback at cadamwren@gmail.com. Have a good week. Did someone forward this email to you? You can subscribe below.
I'll concede to Trevor. Willis Van Devanter was named from Wyoming but I am a believer in origin by birthplace. As an aside, Van Devanter was cofirmed by the US Senate THREE days after nomination by Wm. Howard Taft.
" In 1904, [Minton] was arrested for disregarding a town ordinance forbidding bicyclists to ride on the sidewalk. He was taken before a justice of the peace and fined three dollars, an incident he later credited with changing his outlook on life and sparking his desire to become a lawyer." Perhaps Indianapolis Metro will be inspiring a future Justice upon citing the young man or woman for riding a scooter on an Indianapolis sidewalk. From the Wikipedia entry citing "Sherman Minton: New Deal Senator, Cold War Justice" authored by Linda Gugin and James St. Clair.