Mike Pence on the brink
Plus: Wild fundraising reports in Indiana's mayoral races.
ATLANTIC, Iowa — On a crisp evening in a small town not far from Iowa’s southwestern border, Mike Pence’s decades-long quest for the White House has come down to a coin toss.
Here he is, the most recent former GOP vice president, standing at the 50-yard-line of a high school football field in a town just shy of 7,000. The team captains stand alongside him and his wife Karen, the smell of brats grilling and corn popping in the air. Tails. The hometown Trojans win the toss against the Perry Bluejays. “There’s nothing like Friday night lights,” he will soon tell a reporter from the student newspaper. “We wouldn’t have missed it for the world.”
Next, he makes his way to the press box to provide color commentary for the game on the local AM radio station KJAN (“contemporary adult hits!”). Earlier this afternoon he confessed to me that he was nervous about the ordeal — it’s been decades since, after losing congressional bids in 1988 and 1990, he hosted a Saturday morning call-in show on WNDE-AM in Indianapolis before jumping to FM syndication of The Mike Pence Show. “They told me I could go up to the booth and do play by play,” I overheard him tell a voter. “Not good. It’s been a long time.”
Pence had capably debated Kamala Harris in front of an audience of 57.9 million back in 2020 and led the White House’s coronavirus task force press briefings as the world watched. But this was Iowa, and he was fretting about an AM radio hit. Pence, determined to get any Iowa voter to listen to him, so help him God, needed this.
“That’s a big pickup on the 21-yard line,” a headset-wearing Pence says of the hometown team as they advance deep into opposing territory. Chris Parks, the station’s sports director, asks Pence whether he wants to call the next play. Pence laughs uncomfortably and looks back at the field. To avoid dead air, Parks announces the play instead.
Was the appearance here at the Trojan Bowl a savvy play to win over Iowans or the desperate act of a campaign running out of options? “Desperate for sure,” David Kochel, the veteran Iowa GOP strategist who worked on both of Mitt Romney’s presidential campaigns and Jeb Bush’s political action committee, told me later that night.
Since disclosing that he has just $1.2 million cash left, alongside more than $620,000 in debt, Pence’s presidential campaign has not said whether he has qualified for the third debate in Miami next month; he’s reached the polling minimum but not the donor threshold. “That debt number is going to be impossible to pay back,” a longtime Pence ally told me. “When he drops out he’s going to have to do debt-retirement fundraisers.” In the immediate hours after the report came out, few around him expected him to quit before Iowa; far less clear is where he could compete after. Pence spent this past week fundraising in Dallas and is expected back in Iowa as early as next week, according to a spokesman.
If faith is the assurance of things hoped for and the conviction of things not seen, as the Bible teaches, Pence might have more of it than anyone these days based on what he's not seeing.
Nearly six months into his presidential campaign, and fewer than 90 days until the Iowa caucuses, Pence is not seeing massive crowds like his former running mate Donald Trump, or his fellow Midwesterner Vivek Ramaswamy, or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, or even his longtime frenemy, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. Thirty folks at Penn Drug store in Sidney on a recent Friday morning; another 30 at the Olive Branch Restaurant in Greenfield that afternoon; 60 at a senior center in Glenwood the next day. Nor is he seeing anything but single-digit backing in polls. In Iowa, he’s currently averaging just 2.6 percent among Republican voters.
Good Saturday morning, and welcome back to IMPORTANTVILLE.
MAJOR MAYORAL MOVES
Republican and Democratic mayoral candidates across Indiana are posting record hauls in races from Carmel to Indianapolis.
In Carmel, facing its most competitive election in a generation as seven-term incumbent Jim Brainard retires, Republican candidate Sue Finkam raised over $675,000—more than double her Democratic opponent Miles Nelson, who himself raised a record-breaking $316,000.
“The momentum behind our campaign is growing by the day,” Finkam said. “My plan and experience to Elevate Carmel continues to resonate with voters. Our record-breaking finance report proves the hard work our team has done and will continue to do to ensure Carmel remains special and on the path to success.”
Finkam has raised nearly $1 million for the campaign—$900,000—and has $280,000 cash on hand down the homestretch. Nelson, meanwhile, has $116,000 cash on hand.
“I’m humbled by the support of my friends and neighbors, who believe in this campaign and my vision for how to keep Carmel moving forward,” Nelson said. “Because of their commitment, we have the necessary resources to compete and finish strong over the next few weeks.”
Meanwhile, in Indianapolis, the biggest city left on the U.S. map where Republicans could flip a mayoralty in the U.S., challenger Jefferson Shreve loaned himself $10.5 million for a total of $14.5 million in his kitty, with $930,000 in donations and $3.1 million cash on hand. Democratic incumbent Joe Hogsett raised a record breaking $2.6 million, posting $6.16 million.
“It’s clear Mayor Joe’s leadership has united Indianapolis, as evidenced by this week’s unanimous passage of his 2024 budget and a record fundraising amount from a broad-based coalition of support,” said Blake Hesch, campaign manager. “While 100% of Mayor Joe's campaign has been funded by people, organizations, and businesses who support his positive vision for the city, only 7% of Jefferson’s donations came from donors other than himself.”
At $20.6 million, it’s now officially the most expensive mayoral race in Indianapolis history, and outpaced last year’s U.S. Senate race, in which Sen. Todd Young raised $14.5 million and Tom McDermott raised $1.1 million.
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE STATE:
Brandon Sakbun, the rising Terre Haute Democrat who some have compared to Pete Buttigieg, raised $200,000 as he seeks to unseat incumbent Duke Bennett. Indiana Democrats see this race as winnable, though it likely still favors Bennett.
Early voting is underway ahead of Election Day on Nov. 7.
IMPORTANTVILLE SOUNDBITE
"We don't deserve the majority if we go along with a plan to give Democrats control.”
—Rep. Jim Banks, an Indiana Republican U.S. Senate candidate, to Axios.
IMPORTANTVILLE READS
“Indianapolis news nonprofit raids IndyStar's staff,” by Axios Indianapolis’ James Briggs
The Indianapolis Star is bleeding staff to a news nonprofit that has only just begun its hiring spree.
Why it matters: Gannett-owned IndyStar faces perhaps the most competition for staff, readers and advertisers since it combined operations with the Indianapolis News, a newspaper that closed in 1999.
“Mike Pence faces a cash shortage and questions about how much longer his 2024 campaign can survive,” by AP’s Jill Colvin
People close to Pence say he now faces a choice about how long to stay in the race and whether remaining a candidate might potentially diminish his long-term standing in the party, given Trump’s dominating lead. While Pence could stick it out until the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses, visiting the state’s famous Pizza Ranch restaurants and campaigning on a shoestring budget, he must now weigh how that will impact his desire to remain a leading conservative voice, according to the people, some of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to share their unvarnished views.
“Pence campaign sputters amid money troubles, staff cuts and low enthusiasm,” by Meryl Kornfield and Marriane LeVine
Four months after launching his campaign with an embrace of traditional conservatism and a rejection of his former running mate Donald Trump, Pence, who once sat a heartbeat away from the presidency, now stands at a difficult crossroads. Plagued by financial problems, low polling numbers and a message that hasn’t resonated with the party base, he has been forced to confront tough realities this fall about the future of his campaign.
That’s all for today. Thanks for reading.
Have you considered covering the Evansville mayoral race? We’ll be electing the first woman mayor, and democrat Stephanie Terry is looking to flip the seat and become the first black woman to lead the city. It’s the first competitive race in 12 years here.