Indiana’s 2022 primaries are still more than a month away, and yet the state’s 2024 GOP gubernatorial primary looms large on the horizon.
Already, there are rumors that Rep. Trey Hollingsworth—who announced his retirement from the 9th Congressional District earlier this year—is in the early stages of starting his own political action committee, though a campaign spokesman did not return IMPORTANTVILLE messages seeking comment.
Sen. Mike Braun can barely get through a press availability without reporters asking him whether he’s weighing a run of his own. Former Indiana Commerce Secretary Eric Doden of Fort Wayne goosed the field by announcing an exploratory committee early, raising $1.3 million last year.
Now, what was once presumed to be a rollicking tour de force featuring a cadre of a double-digit candidate field may be a somewhat smaller affair, say Republican insiders, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the race. The lurking presence of potential self-funders like Hollingsworth and Braun has already re-shaped and winnowed the field.
“With the possibility of 1-3 self-funders and [a] sitting [luietenant governor] in the race, it’s difficult to see a path for the top spot,” one powerful Indiana Republican recently told me.
Welcome back to the IMPORTANTVILLE CAUCUS, a semi-regular, unscientific feature in which I reach out to my top sources on background to divine what’s really happening in Indiana politics.
I asked more than a dozen well-wired Indiana Republicans how they rank the most bandied about names for the next gubernatorial race. That’s when popular incumbent Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb will be term-limited but play a potentially outsized role behind the scenes in blessing his successor.
We’ve taken a few candidates off the board since our last rankings in June: U.S. Rep. Jim. Banks (He’s poised to climb the leadership ranks in the House if Republicans take back the lower chamber. Gambling away a safe seat doesn’t make sense. Still, he more than any other member of those listed here could score an important Trump endorsement if he wanted to run); and Fishers Mayor Scott Fadness (he’s been doing some travel statewide, but he doesn’t need to run for governor).
Here’s the last IMPORTANTVILLE ranking of GOP contenders in June 2021:
Now, the latest rankings:
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