Really Importantville: Kavanaugh-Ford hearing—Braun's health plan— Merritt polls negative narratives
What's happening—and what's next—at the intersection of politics and business in Indiana.
By Adam Wren and design by Kris Davidson
Days to Election Day: 40
Days to First #INSen Debate: 10
EXEC SUMMARY: Ahead of a historic day of testimony in the U.S. Senate, Sen. Joe Donnelly renewed last week’s call for an FBI investigation of sexual assault allegations against Judge Brett Kavanaugh. Donnelly’s opponent, Mike Braun, suggested the allegations were “orchestrated” and paled “in significance to [Kavanaugh’s] stellar record.” In the titanic Kavanaugh confirmation battle, Donnelly remains one of two “wild cards” among red state Democrats, along with Joe Manchin (D-W.V.), per Politico. President Trump’s PAC is dropping $2 million against Donnelly. “We need to fight back—hard,” Donnelly said in a fundraising email last night, the second of two his campaign sent out in the hours after the news broke. Kellyanne Conway attended an event for Mike Braun at the South Bend Aloft Hotel. State Sen. James Merritt is in the field with a poll testing out negative narratives against him in his barnburner of a race against Democrat Derek Camp.
NEW THIS MORNING: "‘This guy doesn’t know anything’: the inside story of Trump’s shambolic transition team,” by Michael Lewis, has stunning new details about the Pence-led transition team. An excerpt from the morning after the election:
Chris Christie was sitting on a sofa beside Trump when Pennsylvania was finally called. It was 1.35am, but that wasn’t the only reason the feeling in the room was odd. Mike Pence went to kiss his wife, Karen, and she turned away from him. “You got what you wanted, Mike,” she said. “Now leave me alone.” She wouldn’t so much as say hello to Trump.
SCOTUS STATE OF PLAY: Donnelly told Senate Democrats that Indiana is still behind Kavanaugh, per Politico. Mike Braun, on WTTV earlier this week, said of the sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh: “The process looks orchestrated from the get-go.” On the Hugh Hewitt Show, Braun, asked what he would do if Ford didn't testify, said “everything I've read and tried to understand about the particularities of the accusation and especially the way it’s been orchestrated in terms of the revelations, I think that just pales in significance to a stellar record over so many years and testimonials that, you know, rebut that.”
—THE INDIANA ANGLE: “Attorney picked to question Supreme Court nominee prosecuted former South Bend priest in Arizona,” Tribune and wire reports.
The attorney chosen by Senate Republicans to question Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and one of his accusers is perhaps best known for prosecuting a former Roman Catholic priest with ties to South Bend.
Rachel Mitchell is chief of the Special Victims Division in the Maricopa County attorney's office in Phoenix. She was picked by Senate Republicans to question both Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford, who has accused Kavanaugh of drunkenly assaulting her when they were teenagers.
Meanwhile, what is likely the most accurate poll of the general election Senate matchup so far this cycle shows the candidates are effectively tied.
A new poll by Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics, conducted of 1,181 likely voters and in the field from Sept. 12 to Sept. 19, finds that Donnelly leads Braun 46 to 43, with a credibility interval of 2.5 percentage points.
In terms of the most important issue of the day facing the nation, Indianans are also split in citing healthcare (15%), the economy (14%) and immigration (12%) as the strongest motivating issues for likely voters in Indiana to actually make it to the polls.
Likely voters are equally as likely to vote for “a candidate who agrees with me” regardless of their political affiliation (Democrat 95%, and Republican 96%).
—MORE HERE.
Good Thursday morning. Welcome to Really Importantville. Thanks for being a subscriber. Fall is in the air, it’s crisp out, and I’m totally this guy right now: “Mr. Autumn Man Walking Down Street With Cup Of Coffee, Wearing Sweater Over Plaid Collared Shirt.” The Kurt Vonnegut Museum and Library is holding Banned Books Week through Saturday. Kurt Vonnegut’s daughter, Nanette, is in town. Tickets and schedule here. Enjoying this email? Forward to a friend and have them click subscribe below.
WHERE’S VEEP? He has no scheduled events—probably glued to C-SPAN, like the rest of us.
HAPPENING TODAY: Gov. Eric Holcomb attends a Q+A at the Forbes AgTech Conference at 8:45 a.m. at the White River State Park's Celebration Plaza. Mayor Joe Hogsett and IMPD Chief Bryan Roach hold IMPD diversity meetings at 9 a.m. at UIndy Hall C, first floor of the Schwitzer Student Center. Democrat Jim Harper is attending the Secretary of State Candidate School in Indianapolis at 11 a.m., an event organized by his Republican opponent and incumbent Connie Lawson, per a tipster (awkward?).
GEEK OUT WITH UVA CENTER FOR POLITICS/IPSOS' 2018 POLITICAL ATLAS: Focusing on the Indiana microsite, you can parse all kinds of historical data by Congressional district, and see which issues are trending on social media statewide. In case you think the midterms aren’t a Trump referendum, just look at the top statewide issue on social media: Trump, who accounts for 35 percent of all activity here; 12 percent of that activity comes from bots.
--Donnelly has nearly six times Braun’s cash-on-hand, $6.4 million to $1 million.
TRUMP APPROVAL UNDERWATER IN INDIANA: The president is at 48 percent approve-51 percent disapprove, per Kyle Klondik and the UVA Center for Politics.
LUGAR NOT ENDORSING IN #INSEN: Per Matt Smith, the elder Hoosier statesman will stay on the sidelines—no surprises here.
Former Indiana Sen. @dicklugar says he won't endorse in #INSen: "“I’m not trying to enforce points of view and I’m afraid it would be misinterpreted."
On Braun/Donnelly, Lugar said they are "two able candidates who are running pretty good campaigns." #INFocus pic.twitter.com/l7ZVj1RN75
-- DONNELLY’s campaign chafed at the news in a statement. “For years, the U.S. Chamber stood by Joe as he worked with them to advance pro-business policies, even standing behind him as he bucked his own party to pass commonsense regulatory relief legislation. But with barely a month to go, they put partisan affiliation over a proven pro-business champion like Joe,” said Will Baskin-Gerwitz, communications director for Joe for Indiana. “The U.S. Chamber may have forgotten that Joe has fought in the Senate for Indiana entrepreneurs, but Hoosiers know that Joe is the real pro-business candidate in this race.”
NRA ENDORSES BRAUN: “My dad gave me my first shotgun when I was 10 years old and I still use it to this day,” Braun said in a statement. “I am honored to accept the NRA’s endorsement and to work with them to fight Democrat attacks on Hoosiers' fundamental right to bear arms and defend their families.”
BRAUN’S HIGH-DEDUCTIBLE HEALTHCARE PLAN— “Health care takes center stage in midterms fight -- and Republicans are on the defensive,” by CNN's Eric Bradner and Dan Merica: Bradner and Merica get their hands on Meyer Distributing’s employee handbook (!).
In Indiana, the home to one of the most competitive races for US Senate, Republican challenger Mike Braun is airing television ads touting the health coverage offered by his own business, where he says insurance premiums have remained flat for 10 years.
But a closer look at his business casts doubt on whether a Braun-style plan would be a better deal for most Americans.
What Braun doesn't say in his ads: His company's insurance plan features a deductible of $5,000 per year for individuals and $10,000 per year for families, according to the employee handbook of Braun's auto-parts business, Meyer Distributing, obtained by CNN. High deductibles are one of Americans' chief health care complaints and are a top target for Republicans' attacks on Obamacare.
The average deductible nationally is $1,500 for single plans, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. That means Braun's company's workers who get sick could face steeper-than-average medical bills. High deductibles are also a way to keep premiums in check. Meyer's employee handbook shows that workers pay $34.30 biweekly in premiums for themselves or $198.44 for a family. Compared to national averages, that's about $300 cheaper for the year for single workers and $550 cheaper for those whose plans cover their families in 2017, according to Kaiser. The company did not respond to a request for comment on its health insurance plans.
Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly’s campaign says the high-deductible plan undercuts Braun's argument that he has better solutions to rising health insurance costs.
“Even his overhyped health care plan for his own employees is only a 'solution' if they're as wealthy as he is," Donnelly spokesman Will Baskin-Gerwitz said.
MERRITT PUTS A POLL IN THE FIELD: Sources say a GOP-backed poll went into the field in State Sen. James Merritt’s district this week. The poll tests a number of negative narratives against him, including Trump, RFRA vote, and, most notably, a 2014 vote for a senate bill that would have allowed guns to be carried on to school grounds. NRA has given him an A rating. It’s a tough narrative for someone who represents Hamilton County given events of the last year.
SUPPORT FOR NEEDLE EXCHANGES IN INDIANA: “A survey commissioned by Indiana University’s Grand Challenge initiative found more than half of respondents, 54 percent, support syringe/needle exchange programs....More than three-quarters, 79 percent, said, “We are not doing enough as a nation to solve the opioid epidemic.” The survey of 603 Indiana residents was conducted by Atomic Research.”
HOLDING THE GAVEL: Rep. Jim Banks held the gavel in the House yesterday.
NEW DRINK CULTURE PODCAST EPISODE: Polina Osherov, PATTERN Magazine, based here in Indianapolis. Put on your best outfit and find your light as Polina Osherov tells the story of Indianapolis' fashion magazine, PATTERN. While we sip on moonshine in her creative space, Polina shares how an industry gets started in a midwestern city.
IMPORTANTVILLE READS
Alexi McCammon, Axios: “The midwestern Senate race getting a $2 million boost from Trump's allies”
America First Action, the Trump-aligned super PAC, is planning to put $2 million behind GOP candidate Mike Braun in Indiana's Senate race and an additional $300,000 behind Carol Miller in the House race for West Virginia's 3rd district.
Why it matters: Things don't look great for Republicans in these races. Democrats are leading recent polls in both of them. Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly has nearly six times as much cash-on-hand as Braun. And no other major outside GOP group is investing in the West Virginia race yet.
Burgess Everrett and Elana Schor, “Red-state Democrats refuse to come out against Kavanaugh”
The two biggest wild cards remain Manchin and Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.). Both are paying close attention to how GOP Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine vote, according to one person familiar with their thinking. And the duo has made clear to fellow Democrats that they're agonizing over the decision.
“They have let us know that their states are still with Kavanaugh,” said one Democratic senator, who said the press-shy Donnelly was particularly vocal about that on Tuesday at a party meeting.
Kaitlin Lange, Indy Star: Sen. Joe Donnelly: FBI should investigate allegations against Brett Kavanaugh
Democrat Sen. Joe Donnelly called Wednesday for the FBI to investigate the allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, after a third woman came forward with accusations against the judge.
“The allegations raised against Judge Kavanaugh are serious, merit further review, and I believe should be investigated by the FBI," Donnelly said in a statement. "I will continue to get as much information as I can, including by following Thursday’s scheduled hearing.”
Julie Swetnick said she witnessed efforts by Kavanaugh and a classmate to get girls inebriated at parties in high school so they could be "gang raped," according to a signed statement her attorney Michael Avenatti released Wednesday.
She also said the two were present when she was gang raped, but did not say Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her.
Two other women, Christine Blasey Ford and Deborah Ramirez, previously came forward with sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh.
Kavanaugh has vehemently denied all of the allegations. He called Swetnick's accusations "ridiculous and from the Twilight Zone."
“I don’t know who this is and this never happened,” Kavanaugh added.
IMPORTANTVILLE INBOX
RUBBER CHICKEN DINNER CIRCUIT: Donnelly attended a D.C. fundraiser luncheon yesterday, with suggested contributions ranging from $500 to $2,500, as first reported by Publici Senior Reporter Dave Levinthal. The RNC in Indiana attacked Donnelly for the move. “When you listen to Senator Donnelly’s deceitful rhetoric he wants you to believe that he works for Hoosiers, but when you follow the money, he’s a partisan Democrat through and through,” said RNC Spokesperson Michael Joyce. "Unfortunately for Donnelly, Hoosiers know that he’s beholden to Chuck Schumer because every time he’s given the opportunity to do the right thing, he takes his marching orders from Schumer.”
IMPORTANTVILLE KICKER
“Kavanaugh has support in the state, as you would expect. He’s also strongly opposed by a lot of Hoosiers,” Joel Elliott, Donnelly’s chief of staff, said to Politico. “There's a lot of overlap, however, between those two groups when it comes to wanting to hear more from Dr. Blasey Ford during Thursday’s hearing.”
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