Updated: The latest 2024 Indiana GOP gubernatorial power rankings
What does a potential Mitch Daniels entrance—and a Trey Hollingsworth exit—do to shakeup the field?
Welcome back to the IMPORTANTVILLE CAUCUS, a semi-regular, unscientific feature in which I reach out to my top sources on background to divine what’s really happening in Indiana politics.
The shadow primary unfolding before a much-anticipated actual 2024 GOP gubernatorial primary is coming into the light. Will former Gov. Mitch Daniels return from Purdue University to launch a third-term campaign? Is outgoing Rep. Trey Hollingsworth more interested in the U.S. Senate? Can Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch win back the portion of Republican voters who have rejected the Holcomb era?
We’ll dive into all that and more. First, though, here’s how candidates ranked in March:
Now, the latest rankings: a ↔ means the candidate’s ranking has remained the same; a ↓ means their ranking has fallen; and, of course, a ↑ means they have risen.
7. Former State Sen. Jim Merritt ↔
Merritt is still plugging away, racking up media appearances and taking avant-garde positions on everything from marijuana legalization (he’s for it) to whether the Indiana General Assembly should’ve called a special session on abortion (he was against it). “Yes I am,” Merritt told me recently when I asked him if he was still interested in seeking statewide office. The amiable former Republican State Senate Majority Leader who championed a thoughtful response to Indiana’s opioid epidemic long before it was fashionable to do so is still “focused on talking about third-rail public policy,” he told me.
Yes, there is what could be charitably described as his ambling 2019 Indianapolis mayoral bid, but his interesting policy positions and focus on helping 2022 candidates ahead of the midterms could gain him purchase in a crowded field.
6. Indiana Republican Party Chairman Kyle Hupfer ↓
Hupfer has no doubt lost some political capital since a disastrous summer convention. Still, he has ties to Holcomb’s best fundraisers and could play a role in shaping the primary field. As the Republican National Committee’s general counsel, he could be on a shortlist to replace RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel should she ever step aside. Hupfer, unlike some of his competitors, doesn’t need politics: He is a successful businessman and government relations pro.
6. Attorney General Todd Rokita ↑
In a field where the appetite for a MAGA candidacy could be at a premium, Rokita continues to position himself as a possible contender. He is approaching $1 million in money raised this year. At this point, he is more likely to remain the attorney general or run for Senate should current incumbent Mike Braun run for governor, according to multiple Republican insiders.
5. Eric Doden ↑
The former Pence appointee and Fort Wayne businessman has already raised more than $5 million and is racking up the miles across Indiana’s 92 counties. He has proven himself as the only officially announced candidate. Whether he can expand his fundraising prowess outside of friends, family and business associates remains an open question.
Does Doden, who has struck the pose of a sunny optimist, have a place in the current MAGA Republican Party, particularly when he doesn’t have deep roots in the party as some other potential candidates? A new entrant to the field (scroll below) could crowd out his lane.
4. Rep. Trey Hollingsworth ↓
Where’s Trey? Hollingworth has been remarkably quiet in recent months. He’s neither campaigning nor fundraising for other candidates. He’s not seen traveling the state, though word leaked he would be willing to spend $15 million of his own private net worth on a potential bid.
Perhaps that’s why Hollingsworth speculation has turned to a 2024 Senate bid (scroll down for why).
"What I hear from Hoosiers across the state is they are sick of politicians promoting their careers over our communities; I'm focused on serving Hoosiers in the current 9th District, the new 9th District, and in any capacity where we can together make a difference," Hollingsworth last told IMPORTANTVILLE in a statement when this newsletter broke the news of his interest for a new gig last fall.
3. Senator Mike Braun ↓
Don’t expect imminent news from Braun on whether he’s running for re-election to the Senate. “I’m going to make the decision based on where I think I can help Hoosiers the most,” Braun has said.
But there isn’t a natural Braun constituency, no particular kind of Hoosier aching for a Braun gubernatorial bid who doesn’t also share his last name or isn’t on his payroll.
Still, Braun has visited all 92 Indiana counties each year in office, maintaining a real presence across the state. In Morning Consult's last update, Braun had a 44 percent approval rating compared with a 24 percent disapproval rating, with 30 percent not having an opinion.
The latest unverified rumors in GOP circles—bubbling up particularly over the last few days—is that Braun has struck a deal with fellow potential self-funder and outgoing Hollingsworth, in which Hollingsworth would run for Senate in 2024 and Braun would seek the governor’s residence. A similar rumor rippled across the Republican cognoscenti regarding such a deal between Rokita and Braun earlier this year.
2. Suzanne Crouch ↑
Crouch is all but in. The question: Is the GOP base?
"Suzanne Crouch is going to have a very hard time winning the Republican nomination in 2024. She’s inevitably linked to Holcomb,” Rob Kendall, the WIBC radio host told me earlier this year. “Not only was she his running mate twice, but she sat quietly, not saying a word, as he's done a whole bunch of things that have enraged Conservatives. Suzanne is super personable and a great fundraiser, but Holcomb is toxic in a Republican Primary. She won’t be able to escape him.”
Crouch’s response? “I doubt that we'll see the June 2022 issues in 2023 and 2024.”
Crouch has assembled a team, details of which will begin to trickle out in the coming weeks. She has the Hoosier GOP mega fundraiser Bob Grand in her corner. And she has sharpened her stump speech, moving it rightward: “Big government, the corporate media, and left-wing ideologues are the three-headed monster we’re fighting against,” she told the crowd.
“Timing becomes everything, and I certainly won't make a decision or announcements before the midterm,” Crouch told me.
1. Former Gov. Mitch Daniels (Previously unranked.)
Truth is, it’s what Daniels hasn’t said that makes him such an intriguing possibility ahead of 2024: No.
In an ongoing series of interviews—have you noticed his media hits are increasing?—Daniels has declined to take the possibility of a third term off the table. Coming away from my interview with him in August, in addition to my conversations with Republicans close to him, I came away with the sense that he’s more likely to run than not.
His former aides Christine Luther Hurst and Ben Ledo have created a PAC urging him to dust off his famed recreational vehicle RV1, in search of the next great fried pork tenderloin—and the governor’s residence on Meridian Street (though he famously never lived there).
What Daniels needs to run: a reason, a cri de cœur, a specific problem to solve. He has nothing to gain, personally, from a third term. But does he think the state does? The answer to that question will lead to what he decides to do next year.
What might that be? My sense is that he’s thinking a lot about Indiana’s talent problem. Near the end of his term, he told me, he was giving speeches that said “All right, a better tax regime? Check. Better litigation regime? Better regulation, infrastructure? We’re now number one in the country every year it seems like. But until we can check the talent box, we haven't got this thing solved. And we haven't checked the talent box. I'm not faulting anybody, but it's the hardest problem to deal with.”
Expect him to take some time off early next year, write a book, and then spend some time with his brain trust before the news breaks.
HONORABLE MENTION: Rep. Jim Banks. If things—somehow, and unlikely—go historically poorly for Republicans in November, Banks’ steady march to leadership in Congress could be halted, and he could be the most formidable MAGA-lane candidate to challenge a more moderate candidate in a Republican primary.
YOUR TURN: Who did I miss? Who did I rank too high? Too low? Hit reply or respond below in the comments.