What's a good November for IN Dems?
Two weeks out, Indiana Democrats disagree somewhat about Midterm expectations.
Days to Election Day: 14
It’s been a weird year in Indiana politics, with two polls from two different shops showing two statewide races—a U.S. Senate seat pursued by Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott against Republican Incumbent Todd Young, and the Secretary of State’s office pursued by Destiny Wells— in reach of Hoosier Democrats. (Each race has a Libertarian candidate James Sceniak and Jeff Maurer, respectively, poised to pick up fewer than 12 points if history is a guide).
Publicly, Democrats have been bullish on pickup opportunities. “We are competing to win,” party spokesman Drew Anderson said in an email recently, and “are more unified with our message than ever before.”
Privately, expectations are a little soberer. More than a year and a half into the Democrats’ rebuild, I’ve spent much of the last week talking with top Indiana Democrats about what a good year—not a great one—looks like for them. Under new Chairman Mike Schmuhl, Democrats here have held 160 events across 70 counties. It’s an impressive show of force, jolting corners of the party in far-flung parts of the state back to life. But is that enough to move the meter on Nov. 8?
“One of the earliest lessons I learned in politics more than a dozen years ago was, don't guess outcomes or percentages,” Schmuhl told me. “You can control what you can control and then run your program to try to run good campaigns and work with great candidates.” Success, he added, is “protecting what we have, and beginning to make inroads in different parts of the state.” Translation: holding onto Rep. Frank Mrvan’s seat in the 1st Congressional District, and shrinking 2020s abysmal margins in statewide and local races.
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