DES MOINES—No other campaign has as much at stake in Iowa as Mike Pence’s, with one senior adviser acknowledging that “it will be over” if the former vice president doesn’t overperform.
Pence is the only candidate to have formally launched his campaign here. He’s made 13 trips to the state since leaving the vice presidency. And his campaign has said it expects him to campaign in all 99 counties.
Pence has four paid staffers on the ground, according to his campaign. And one of Pence’s closest aides, Chip Saltsman, who led the winning 2008 caucus campaign of Mike Huckabee, is guiding Pence’s early moves in the state.
“We have seen an increase in openness to Vice President Pence within the last week,” a spokesperson told POLITICO. “Former Trump or DeSantis voters have been engaging with us more consistently, more friendly, and more in depth than they had in the past.”
Good Monday afternoon, and welcome back to IMPORTANTVILLE.
WHERE’S PENCE? He’s headed to Iowa at the end of the week.
Pence is also confirmed to participate in the 2023 National Conference of State Legislatures Legislative Summit in Indianapolis on Aug. 16.
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5 INDIANA POLITICS STORYLINES TO WATCH THIS WEEK
Here are the stories I’m clocking this week.
1. Can Mike Pence gain a foothold in the Republican presidential primary?
After getting a slow start to fundraising, Pence is enduring a rash of stories about his failure to launch in the GOP primary. His team points to the fact that this is not a national primary, but one that starts in Iowa, where he is said to be performing well among likely caucus-goers, two-thirds of whom are evangelicals. As he returns to Iowa this week, Pence will soon face a cauldron of stories about his viability.
2. Can Eric Doden gain a foothold with the Indiana press corps?
The 2024 GOP gubernatorial field is a crowded one with four candidates and counting. Any edge matters.
So far, no GOP candidate has made themselves as available to the press as the Fort Wayne businessman. In almost any contest at any level of politics, this almost always assures that candidate—as long as they’re half interesting—voluminous and friendly coverage. (See Ramaswamy, Vivek; Daniels, Mitch; and Buttigieg, Pete). Doden is seeking to occupy that lane as one of his key advantages this cycle, and expect a ream of Doden-friendly stories to trickle out in the coming days.
3. Will Brad Chambers pull the trigger and expand the field?
Chambers could get in the governor’s race as early as late August. Rival campaigns are already sizing up how he shapes the field, as I wrote about in Sunday’s subscribers-only edition.
4. Who would replace Indiana GOP Chairman Kyle Hupfer if he steps down later this year to manage Chambers’ campaign?
5. Can Jefferson Shreve level out the narrative?
The Republican Indianapolis mayoral candidate had an interesting weekend on Twitter. He posted a now-deleted tweet about campaigning in Perry County (about 173 miles south of Marion County, where he is campaigning for mayor) instead of Perry Township. But he also posted a photo of a supporter with a holstered handgun—days after announcing a public safety plan that attributed some of the city’s crime problem. He did not delete that tweet.
“In the aftermath of January 6th, it should trouble every Indianapolis resident to see a candidate for mayor appearing with armed supporters in official campaign photos,” said Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Mike Schmuhl. “No carefully crafted statement from his political consultants can say as much as this: a picture that’s worth a thousand words about Jefferson’s history of support for the gun lobby.”
IMPORTANTVILLE SOUNDBITE
“Mike Pence is caught between a rock and a hard place. He’s too Trumpy for the non-Trumpies and not Trumpy enough for the Trumpies. If you say that Donald Trump is unfit for office, that puts people who voted for Trump in an uncomfortable position psychologically where they have to admit to themselves that they made a mistake. I suppose you could thread that needle by saying he was fit for office until Jan. 6th, and after that he wasn’t. But that’s really threading a needle with those folks.”
—GOP pollster Whit Ayres, to The Washington Post
MAJOR MOVES
George Hornedo—an Obama Administration alum and lawyer with more than a decade of political experience including serving as National Deputy Political Director & Delegate Director on Pete Buttigieg’s presidential campaign—has left Ice Miller after more than years where he supported corporate, municipal, and nonprofit clients with a full suite of needs before governments at every level.
Now, Hornedo is launching Hornedo Strategies—a consultancy specializing in government advising, political strategy, and athlete advocacy. Hornedo Strategies will lead corporate clients as well as state and local governments in the pursuit of federal funding opportunities; serve political clients with an eye toward the next generation of elected leaders, and leverage George’s certification as an NBA Agent to represent athletes at the professional and collegiate levels.
IMPORTANTVILLE READS
Mike Pence struggles to gain attention and traction in longshot bid, by The Washington Posts’ Marianne Levine
HUDSON, N.H. — As he finished up his remarks at an outdoor garden party hosted by a former state senator, Mike Pence made one final request to prospective voters.
“Even one dollar, although I want to emphasize you can give a lot more, would be a help tonight, even before you go to bed tonight, go online, send us a buck or whatever,” the former vice president said, dressed in a crisp light-blue button-down and navy slacks on a hot summer day in the Granite State. “We’re working around-the-clock to make sure we get enough donors to be up on that debate stage and I’ll see you all at the inauguration.”